US Nonfarm Payrolls: Why Revisions Matter
2026-09-05
Headline jobs + revisions + unemployment + labor-force participation + underlying employment indicators
The Real Risk Is No Longer AI Valuation
2026-09-04
It Is the Rising Cost of Capital
The Fire Is Not Burning Yet. But the Gas Is Already There.
2026-09-01
The Treasury market contains a huge amount of leverage, much of it financed through repo, derivatives and relative-value strategies.
Why the Market Pretends Everything Is Fine?
2026-09-01
The market is simply not pricing the consequences yet.
Oil Price Regimes: From Inflation Risk to a Macro Regime Shift
2026-08-31
A sustained oil-price shock can become a macro regime problem.
The NVIDIA Dollar
2026-08-29
What if NVIDIA doesn't need to become a bank? What if it becomes something closer to a central bank for AI compute?
Inflation Can Fix Almost Everything
2026-08-28
The Fed will save me, so leverage is safe?
NVIDIA FY2027 Q2: AI Supercycle or Capital-Cycle Risk?
2026-08-27
The correct question is how much capital to risk on the assumption that the AI capital cycle can continue.
Stagflation Risk Portfolio Strategy: Defensive Positioning with Optionality
2026-08-26
The latest PCE data points to an uncomfortable combination
When the Treasury Becomes “Too Important to Fail”: How Investors Can Trade the Policy Reaction
2026-08-25
It is the foundation of the global financial system — the benchmark for interest rates, a core reserve asset, major collateral in the repo market, and a key input into the valuation of equities, credit, real estate, and infrastructure.
Google & Alibaba: Why Does the AI Investment Cycle Keep Going?
2026-08-24
Because stopping AI CapEx can be more dangerous for a Big Tech company than continuing it, even when the near-term ROI is uncertain.
AI Infrastructure Capital Flow, Incentives & Wealth Transfer Risk
2026-08-23
The central risk in the current AI infrastructure boom is not necessarily illegal behavior or direct executive embezzlement.
AI Capital Cycle: Real Demand, Real Capital, Real Risk
2026-08-23
AI Infrastructure, Financing, Monetization and the Risk of Overinvestment
AI Bubble Analysis: Why Enron Is Still Relevant
2026-08-22
Will the future economic value created by AI justify the amount of capital invested today?
AI Capital Sustainability Model — Plain English Summary
2026-08-22
Can the economic value created by AI eventually cover the capital invested today and the cost of financing that investment?
AI, Debt, and the Productivity Bet: Can AI Create a Large Enough Economic "Cake"?
2026-08-22
Can AI increase US economic productivity fast enough to offset rising debt costs?
Understanding the AI Bubble Stress Index
2026-08-10
How five weighted components combine into a single 0-100 bubble risk read, and what each one is actually measuring.
What the Long Duration Stress Index Actually Measures
2026-08-05
Yield momentum, term premium, and why 30-year Treasuries tend to move first when AI capex accelerates.
Circular Financing: The 2008 Playbook Applied to AI
2026-07-28
When capital markets, AI CapEx, and AI revenue start reinforcing each other, growth and risk become hard to tell apart.
AI, US Treasury, and Michael Burry: Bubble, Liquidity, and Reality Framework
2026-08-22
Can AI generate enough economic value, fast enough, to justify the amount of capital being committed today?